Your health insurance premium might jump 114% in 2026. Not because of medical costs—because of politics.
While Senate Republicans blocked a one-year extension of Affordable Care Act (ACA) subsidies during the November 2025 government shutdown, major health insurers saw stock prices climb over 300% since 2010. Senator Lindsey Graham called the ACA “fundamentally broken” and accused insurers of making “excessive profits” from the system.
The numbers tell a stark story: UnitedHealth Group, Cigna, and Molina Healthcare all saw massive stock gains over the past 15 years while American families struggle with rising premiums. Now, with subsidies on the chopping block, tens of millions of enrollees face a financial crisis.
Who Won Big from Obamacare? The Stock Market Reveals All
President Trump recently shared a chart on Truth Social titled “Major Health Insurance Company Stock Performance After Obamacare.” The visual data stunned many observers.
Since the ACA’s passage in 2010, major insurers experienced unprecedented growth:
| Company | Stock Performance (2010-2025) |
|---|---|
| UnitedHealth Group | 300%+ increase |
| Cigna | 250%+ increase |
| Molina Healthcare | 400%+ increase |
These aren’t modest gains. We’re talking about companies whose market value exploded while American families saw their healthcare costs climb year after year.
The ACA created a massive government-funded marketplace. Insurers gained millions of new customers through Medicaid expansion and marketplace plans—all backed by federal subsidies. More enrollees meant more revenue, more profit, and soaring stock prices.
Senate Republicans Draw a Line: No More Subsidy Extensions
During the November 2025 government shutdown, Senate Democrats proposed a one-year extension of ACA subsidies as part of a deal to reopen the government. Republicans said no.
Senator Lindsey Graham delivered the most pointed critique:
“You’re asking me and others to continue a program that is fundamentally broken, that’s inflationary. And the only winner of Obamacare are the largest healthcare companies in America who are making excessive profits off a healthcare system you designed.”
He didn’t stop there. Graham argued that Democrats want “more people signed up on this program” while “rewarding insurance companies” and letting healthcare quality decline. His message was clear: We’re not funding this anymore.
The political standoff creates immediate financial risk for ACA enrollees. Without subsidy extensions, millions face unaffordable premiums in 2026.
What Subsidies Actually Do for Your Wallet
ACA subsidies reduce monthly premiums based on your income. For a family of four earning around $60,000 annually, subsidies can cut premium costs by $800-$1,200 per month.
Remove those subsidies? That same family suddenly pays full price—potentially $1,400–$1,800 monthly for coverage. That’s $16,800–$21,600 per year. Most families can’t afford that jump.
The Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services reports that roughly 14.5 million Americans rely on marketplace plans with subsidy support. All of them are now in limbo.
How Insurers Profited While Consumers Paid More
The disconnect is jarring. Insurer stocks soar while families struggle with healthcare costs. How did this happen?
Three factors explain the dynamic:
- Government-guaranteed revenue streams. ACA marketplace plans come with federal subsidies that insurers receive directly. This creates predictable, low-risk income that Wall Street loves.
- Medicaid expansion contracts brought millions of new enrollees to managed care plans run by private insurers like Molina and Centene. States pay insurers a per-member rate, generating steady profits.
- Limited competition in many markets. Some counties have only 1-2 insurers offering ACA plans, reducing price pressure and allowing premium increases that boost profit margins.
Meanwhile, consumers faced rising out-of-pocket costs. Deductibles climbed from around $3,000 in 2010 to over $7,000 for many plans today. Co-pays increased. Networks narrowed, limiting doctor choices.
Senator Graham’s critique hits a nerve because the math supports it: insurers gained enormously while the average American’s healthcare experience didn’t improve proportionally.
What Happens If Subsidies End in 2026?
The government shutdown highlighted a deeper question: What if Congress refuses to extend subsidies permanently?
Without subsidy support, the individual insurance market faces collapse. Here’s why:
Premium shock drives healthy people out. Young, healthy individuals—who pay premiums but rarely use care—will drop coverage when prices double. This leaves insurers with sicker, more expensive enrollees.
The “death spiral” scenario. As healthy people exit, insurers raise premiums to cover costs. Higher premiums drive out more enrollees. Eventually, the market becomes unsustainable, and insurers exit completely—as we saw in some rural markets pre-pandemic.
Emergency room costs explode. Uninsured people still get sick. Without coverage, they delay care until conditions become emergencies. Hospitals absorb these costs, which get passed to taxpayers and insured patients through higher prices.
The Kaiser Family Foundation estimates that ending subsidies would reduce ACA enrollment by 8-10 million people within two years.
Should You Panic About Your 2026 Coverage?
Not yet—but you should prepare.
Current subsidies remain in effect through December 31, 2025. If you have a marketplace plan, your coverage continues for now. But renewal notices for 2026 plans arrive in October-November, and those may include significant premium increases if subsidies aren’t extended.
Three steps to protect yourself:
- Monitor subsidy extension news closely. Check Healthcare.gov for official updates starting September 2025.
- Calculate your unsubsidized premium. Log into your marketplace account and view what you’d pay without subsidies. This shows your worst-case scenario.
- Explore alternatives now. If you have access to employer coverage (even at higher cost), COBRA, or short-term plans, research those options before open enrollment.
Employer-sponsored insurance isn’t affected by this debate. If you get coverage through work, you’re insulated from subsidy politics—at least directly.
The Bigger Picture: Who Really Benefits from ACA Debates?
Strip away the political rhetoric, and you see a pattern. Every time ACA funding gets debated in Congress, insurer stocks react.
When subsidies get extended or expanded? Stocks climb. When subsidies face cuts or elimination? Stocks drop temporarily, then recover as insurers adjust premiums upward to compensate.
Either way, insurers win. They’ve built business models that profit in multiple scenarios:
- Scenario A: Subsidies continue. Insurers get federal payments, enrollee numbers stay high, revenue flows.
- Scenario B: Subsidies end. Enrollees drop, but remaining customers pay much higher premiums—potentially increasing profit per member.
- Scenario C: Partial subsidies. Insurers adjust plan designs (higher deductibles, narrower networks) to maintain margins regardless of subsidy levels.
Consumers bear the risk in every scenario. That’s what Senator Graham meant by “the only winner of Obamacare are the largest healthcare companies.”
The stock market doesn’t lie. A 300% gain over 15 years means shareholders profited immensely. Whether patients received equivalent value in healthcare quality remains hotly disputed.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will my ACA subsidies definitely end in 2026?
Not certain yet. Current subsidies expire December 31, 2025, but Congress could extend them during budget negotiations in fall 2025. The November shutdown showed Republican resistance, but political dynamics shift. Monitor updates from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services starting September for official guidance on 2026 subsidy status.
How much will my premium increase without subsidies?
Depends on your income and current subsidy amount. The average enrollee receives roughly $500–$700 monthly in subsidies. Remove that support, and you pay full premium—often $1,200–$1,800 per month for family coverage. Log into your Healthcare.gov account to see your specific unsubsidized premium estimate for 2026 plans.
Why do Republicans oppose ACA subsidy extensions?
Republicans argue the ACA is inflationary and primarily benefits insurance companies through excessive profits rather than improving patient care quality. Senator Graham cited insurer stock gains exceeding 300% since 2010 as evidence the system enriches corporations at taxpayer expense. They view subsidy extensions as perpetuating a broken model rather than fixing underlying healthcare cost problems.
Should I switch to employer coverage if available?
If employer coverage costs less than your unsubsidized marketplace premium, switching makes financial sense—especially if subsidy extensions remain uncertain. Compare total annual costs including premiums, deductibles, and out-of-pocket maximums. Employer plans often have lower deductibles and broader networks despite higher premiums. Factor in your family’s expected medical usage when deciding.
Which insurers profited most from Obamacare?
UnitedHealth Group, Cigna, and Molina Healthcare saw stock price increases exceeding 250-400% between 2010 and 2025, according to data shared during Senate debates. These companies expanded significantly through ACA marketplace plans and Medicaid managed care contracts. Centene and Anthem (now Elevance Health) also experienced major growth from government-funded insurance programs during this period.
Bottom Line: Watch Your Wallet in 2026
The government shutdown exposed a fundamental tension in American healthcare: insurers thrive financially while consumers face rising costs and political uncertainty.
Stock gains exceeding 300% prove the ACA created massive value for insurance companies. Whether that value translated to better patient care or just higher premiums depends on your perspective—and your medical bills.
For the 14.5 million Americans with ACA marketplace coverage, the next few months are critical. Without subsidy extensions, 2026 could bring premium sticker shock that forces millions to drop coverage entirely.
Start preparing now. Calculate your unsubsidized premium, explore alternatives, and monitor Congressional budget negotiations closely. Your financial health—and actual health—may depend on decisions made in Washington over the next 90 days.
The stock market already made its bet on how this ends. Make sure you’re not caught unprepared when the final vote comes.