The government shutdown ended, but your health insurance worries didn’t. A CBS News poll released this week reveals Americans are breathing easier about the political crisis—yet bracing for financial pain when their next premium bill arrives.
62% of surveyed Americans expect higher health insurance costs in 2026. That’s not speculation. It’s the national mood captured in hard polling data.
The shutdown lasted 35 days. The cost anxiety? That’s permanent.
What the CBS Poll Actually Shows About Your 2026 Premiums
The CBS News survey captured something insurance industry analysts have whispered about for months: consumer confidence in health care affordability is collapsing. While 58% of Americans expressed relief the shutdown ended, that optimism stops at the premium payment threshold.
Here’s what respondents told pollsters about their health care cost expectations:
- 62% anticipate higher premiums in 2026—up from 54% who expected increases before the shutdown began.
- Only 8% believe their premiums will decrease, a figure so low it’s essentially a rounding error in national policy debates.
- The perception gap matters. Whether premiums rise 3% or 13%, Americans now expect pain—which changes how they vote, shop for coverage, and plan medical care.
Senator Bill Cassidy, Republican of Louisiana and chairman of the Senate Health Committee, acknowledged the anxiety in a Face the Nation interview: “We’re absolutely in communication with the White House” on plans to address high health care costs.
Communication, yes. Action? That’s where the poll gets interesting.
Why Americans Think Republicans Won the Shutdown Deal
The same CBS poll asked who benefited most from the shutdown resolution. The results show a clear public perception:
| Group Perceived as Winner | % of Respondents |
|---|---|
| Republican Party | 47% |
| President Trump | 44% |
| Democratic Party | 31% |
| Nobody Won | 23% |
What does this political perception have to do with your premiums? Everything.
When voters believe one party “won” a fiscal showdown, they expect that party to deliver on its promises. For Republicans, that means their 2024 campaign pledges to lower health care costs now face a 62% skeptical audience—before a single policy moves through Congress.
3 Reasons Your Premiums Might Actually Rise in 2026
The poll captures expectations. The insurance industry faces realities. Three structural factors support those consumer fears:
1. Medical cost inflation isn’t slowing. Hospital prices rose 4.2% in 2024, according to Kaiser Family Foundation data. Prescription drug spending jumped 6.8%. Insurers pass those increases to policyholders—that’s not greed, it’s math. When hospitals charge more, premiums follow.
2. The shutdown delayed regulatory approvals. The 35-day freeze meant health insurance rate reviews sat untouched at federal agencies. Some states missed CMS review deadlines entirely. Now insurers face compressed timelines for 2026 filings—and rushed regulatory processes rarely favor consumers.
3. Uncertainty breeds conservative underwriting. When political chaos dominates headlines, insurers price in risk. That means wider margins, higher reserves, and ultimately—you guessed it—increased premiums to cover the “what if” scenarios that keep actuaries awake at night.
The Senate Health Committee’s Plan (Or Lack Thereof)
Senator Cassidy’s statement about White House communication sounds reassuring until you examine what’s actually on the legislative calendar. The Senate Health Committee has held hearings on drug pricing, maternal mortality, and mental health access—all worthy issues that don’t directly address premium affordability.
The gap between talking about costs and reducing them shows up in the CBS poll numbers. Americans see the press conferences. They’re still expecting higher bills.
One revealing detail from Cassidy’s interview: “I’m very concerned about a potential change to the hepatitis B vaccine schedule for infants.” Important health policy? Yes. Will it lower your monthly premium? Not even slightly.
What You Can Do Before Open Enrollment 2026
Expectations aren’t destiny, but they inform smart planning. If 62% of Americans are right about premium increases, here’s how to prepare:
Review your current coverage gaps now. Don’t wait for open enrollment letters. Check which services hit your deductible hardest in 2025. If your plan has a $3,000 deductible and you’ve paid $2,800, consider scheduling that final check-up or procedure before year-end to maximize the money you’ve already spent.
Calculate your subsidy eligibility early. If premium increases push your income-to-premium ratio higher, you might qualify for enhanced ACA subsidies. Run the numbers in August, not November, to avoid rushed decisions during open enrollment chaos.
Consider HSA-eligible high-deductible plans. If you’re healthy and premiums jump significantly, shifting to an HSA-compatible plan lets you build tax-advantaged savings. The 2026 HSA contribution limit hits $4,300 for individuals—money you control, not insurance company profit margins.
Ask your employer about alternatives. If you get coverage through work, ask HR whether 2026 benefits include new plan options. Some employers add lower-premium tiers when costs spike across the industry.
Bottom Line: Poll Numbers Don’t Lie, But They’re Not Insurance Policies
The CBS poll captured a moment—62% of Americans expecting higher health insurance costs reflects genuine anxiety, not actuarial analysis. But expectations shape behavior, and when most of the country braces for premium pain, politicians and insurers both feel pressure.
Will premiums actually rise in 2026? The Senate Health Committee talks about it. The White House acknowledges it. Insurance companies are pricing it.
Your move: Stop waiting for Washington to fix health care costs. Start preparing for the reality that poll respondents already see coming.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did the CBS News poll say about 2026 health insurance costs?
The CBS News poll found that 62% of Americans expect higher health insurance costs in 2026, with only 8% anticipating decreases. This represents an increase in pessimism compared to pre-shutdown surveys, indicating growing consumer anxiety about health care affordability regardless of the political resolution.
Why do Americans think Republicans benefited more from the shutdown deal?
The CBS poll shows 47% of respondents believe the Republican Party benefited most from the shutdown resolution, with 44% saying President Trump won. This perception stems from the deal’s terms and the party’s ability to frame the outcome as a fiscal victory, though it creates higher expectations for delivering on health care cost reduction promises.
How does the government shutdown affect my health insurance premiums?
The 35-day shutdown delayed federal health insurance rate reviews and regulatory approvals, compressing timelines for 2026 premium filings. This rushed process, combined with medical cost inflation of 4.2% and prescription drug spending increases of 6.8%, creates conditions where insurers price in uncertainty—typically resulting in higher premiums for consumers.
What is the Senate Health Committee doing about rising health care costs?
Senator Bill Cassidy, chairman of the Senate Health Committee, stated the committee is “in communication with the White House” about addressing high health care costs. However, the committee’s recent hearings have focused on drug pricing, maternal mortality, and mental health—issues that don’t directly reduce monthly premiums for most consumers in the short term.
Should I switch health insurance plans if premiums increase in 2026?
If your 2026 premium increases significantly, compare all available options during open enrollment—including HSA-eligible high-deductible plans, which offer lower premiums and tax-advantaged savings. Calculate your subsidy eligibility early, as higher premiums might qualify you for enhanced ACA subsidies. Review your current coverage gaps before making changes to ensure you maintain necessary benefits.